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Amgen (AMGN) to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

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Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) will report third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 3, after market close. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.68%.

This large biotech’s performance has been strong, with earnings beating estimates in all the trailing four quarters. The company delivered a four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.59%, on average.

Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Amgen Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

 

 

 

 

 

Amgen Inc. price-eps-surprise | Amgen Inc. Quote

Amgen’s stock has risen 21.7% this year so far against a decline of 21.4% for the industry.

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Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Factors to Consider

In the third quarter, volume growth from Amgen’s key drugs like Prolia, Xgeva, Repatha, Otezla and Evenity, among others, is expected to have driven top-line growth. However, increasing branded and generic competition for its legacy products like Enbrel, Aranesp, Epogen, Neupogen, Neulasta and Sensipar is likely to have hurt the top line. Negative volume and net price trends are likely to have hurt Enbrel’s sales in the quarter.

Also, pricing pressure and increased competition are likely to have continued to hurt sales of some drugs as well as biosimilar products.

The respective Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Repatha, Kyprolis and Evenity sales is pegged at $914 million, $552 million, $144 million, $331 million, $311 million and $199 million, respectively.

Our estimates for Prolia, Xgeva, Blincyto, Repatha, Kyprolis and Evenity sales are pegged at $917.7 million, $545 million, $147.2 million, $321.2 million, $309.4 million and $203.7 million, respectively.

For Otezla, broader adoption in the newly approved indication of mild-to-moderate psoriasis is likely to have pushed sales higher. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Otezla is $636 million, while our estimate is $616.4 million.

Third-quarter sales of Amgen’s new KRAS inhibitor, Lumakras, are likely to have been higher than $77 million recorded in the second quarter. Lumakras, a first-in-class lung cancer treatment, is off to an excellent start while its label expansion studies, which have the potential to significantly expand the currently addressable patient population, are progressing rapidly. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lumakras/Lumykras is $92 million, while our estimate is $95.1 million.

Another new drug, Tezspire (tezepelumab) is likely to have been a key contributor to the top line in the third quarter. Amgen has a partnership with AstraZeneca (AZN - Free Report) for Tezspire. In September, AstraZeneca announced that Tezspire was approved in Japan and Europe. Amgen and AstraZeneca share costs and profits equally after payment by AstraZeneca of a mid-single-digit inventor royalty to Amgen. While AstraZeneca leads development, Amgen leads manufacturing. 

For biosimilars, volume decline and price erosion due to increased competition are expected to have hurt the top line.

Key Development in the Quarter

In August, Amgen announced a definitive agreement to acquire ChemoCentryx for $52 per share in cash, which amounts to a total enterprise value of approximately $3.7 billion. The acquisition will add the latter’s newly approved drug, Tavneos (avacopan), to Amgen’s inflammation and nephrology portfolio. Tavneos was approved for treating antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) associated vasculitis, a serious systemic autoimmune disease, in October last year. The acquisition closed on Oct 22

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Amgen this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Amgen’s Earnings ESP is -0.30% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $4.43 per share while the Most Accurate Estimate is $4.41 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Amgen has a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some biotech stocks that have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:

Blueprint Medicines Corporation (BPMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.49% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Blueprint Medicines missed earnings expectations in three of the trailing four quarters while delivering in-line results in one. It delivered a four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 19.49%, on average.

Blueprint Medicines is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2022 results on Nov 1. The stock is down 50.5% this year so far.

Editas Medicine (EDIT - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.67% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Editas’ stock has declined 52% in the year so far. EDIT beat earnings expectations in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 17.82%. Editas is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2022 results on Nov 2.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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